Is the iPhone game bubble about to burst?

Is the iPhone game bubble about to burst?

May 4th, 2009 | News analysis and background



Could the huge bubble of iPhone game success be about to burst? We have seen many times in the history of the video game industry that customers are very keen to steal the games we have worked on rather than pay for what they have had. This has already destroyed the viability of many gaming platforms. The iPhone could be next.


Basically the App Store mechanism gives no protection to what it hosts, so anyone else can host whatever they want elsewhere and allow free downloads. And this is what is happening, you can get any App you want for the iPhone for free. Up until now most iPhone users were unaware of this so continued paying for their Apps, but the word is getting round very quickly. So now TAG Games are saying that two thirds of users of their game Car Jack Streets have been thieves who have not paid for the game.


Once this particular genie is out of the bottle it is just about impossible to put him back in. So pretty soon, as the word spreads, iPhone App piracy will be in the 90+% that it is for boxed PC games. Which will destroy the business model, just as it has for so many gaming platforms before, and so people will stop developing for the iPhone. Which will damage the iPhone as a gaming platform.


The reason this has happened is almost certainly purely down to Apple’s innocent naivety and inexperience in the gaming industry. They haven’t grasped the fact that the only gaming platforms to experience long term success are those where it is extremely difficult or impossible to steal the games. The three main home consoles, the Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, have many layers of anti piracy protection built into them for this very reason. In fact one of the reasons the gaming industry is doing so much better than the music and film industry is that with our platforms it is quite difficult to steal our work, whilst their work is simple to steal.


Meanwhile if you are developing for the iPhone or thinking about it you need to take a very serious look at how much your work is going to get stolen. Selling very cheap, and so not worth stealing, is probably the best route to take just now.


Original article:
http://www.bruceongames.com/2009/05/04/is-the-iphone-game-bubble-about-to-burst/

 

I agree that there's been a bubble, but surely there aren't that many who jailbreak their iphone? I'm assuming that is a condition for using the other download sources you mention?

I'm not saying you're wrong, i'm just not aware of that much piracy on there, but then i didn't look for warez

 

It probably depends on location, some places it might be not worth it if the data plan is pretty good or you can get a reasonable contract, in places where you can't it'll probably happen a lot more...

 

Once people figure out how to pirate food, Tesco is fucked.

 

I know two people with jailbroken IPhones and they only did it to be able to use a different provider. They still buy apps in the app store.

 

If the stats Simon Carless presented at his GDC talk are to believed, achieving success on the iPhone seems like a bit of a crapshoot anyway.

 

You are forgetting about Apple's ability to upgrade the iPhone's OS and the lifecycle of phones.

Apple continually releases upgrades to the iPhone OS. They could easily enhance the DRM / anti-piracy measures. In addition, Apple releases a new iPhone every 12 months. If software only solutions don't work, Apple can simply add hardware solutions. Apple doesn't need to wait five years unlike a traditional console.

Apple is experienced battling piracy. They might be new to games but they have been in the music business for sometime now.

 

I was surprised this wasn't a post about the platform drowning in shovelware.

Is the platform drowning in shovelware?

 

The platform is drowning in shovelware.

 

This forum is drowning in shovelthreads

 

Eclectic out for a stroll earlier:

 

I think there is a lot of crap on the iPhone, but the gold does seem to keep floating to the top, at least if you have enough friends with iPhones that can recommend stuff to you.

I think the bubble of "develop random crap and people will buy it" is about to burst (or already has) and if you want to make money you actually have to work for it and make a good game / program.

That's a good thing for everyone!

I do think there's too much focus on iPhone though. As far as I know there's massive (harder to access though) markets out there for other platforms.